Trump wstrzymuje wojskową pomoc dla Ukrainy

Co do Rosji na froncie: jedno z najbardziej wiarygodnych, bezemocjonalnych źródeł, kilka dni temu :"Russia has achieved relatively faster gains in 2024 than throughout most of the war after the initial invasion and developed a blueprint for conducting slow, tactical envelopments to achieve these advances, but Russian forces have failed to restore the operational maneuver necessary to achieve operationally significant gains rapidly. Russia has thus paid an exorbitant price in manpower and equipment losses that Russia cannot sustain in the medium term for very limited gains."

"exacerbating challenges that Russia will face in sustaining the war effort through 2025 and 2026, as ISW′s Christina Harward has recently reported.[1] Russia likely cannot sustain continued efforts along these lines indefinitely without a major mobilization effort that Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far refused to order."

"Russian forces suffered approximately 104 casualties per square kilometer of advance in 2024"

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-has-failed-break-ukraine

"The scale of the Russian manpower and materiel losses in 2024 have set conditions for several material and manpower constraints in 2025 and beyond, as ISW has recently reported.[116] The Russian defense industrial base (DIB) cannot keep up with the pace of armored vehicle and artillery shortages, and Russia is unlikely to be able to recruit the manpower it needs to continue sustaining these losses without another round of partial mobilization, which the Kremlin remains reluctant to conduct.[117] Russia’s liquid financial reserves and economy writ large are unlikely to be able to support Russia’s current loss rates for another two years.[118] Russia’s losses are mounting and will generate opportunities for the US and Ukraine to extract a deal from Russia that benefits US national security. The West should continue supporting Ukraine to maintain the loss rate that can provide the US leverage in negotiations."

Trump na kwadraturach próbuje "dealować" z Putinem, co jest obarczone olbrzymim ryzykiem porażki. Kwadratury przejdą, Trump się obudzi, a w horo Rosji "zacznie się dziać" między czerwcem 25 a lutym 26. 

W zasadzie teraz niewiele trzeba by zrobić: wystarczy puścić więcej ropy na rynek, by spadła do ok. 50 USD za baryłkę + utrzymać Starlinka + dostawy broni. Jestem legalistą, więc mnie "trzęsie", ale należałoby zarekwirować te 300 mld USD ruskich, które w większości leżą w Belgii - spłacić wszystkie kraje które pomogły, zapewnić finansowanie do końca 2026. 

I wtedy zawołać Wołodię do stołu. 

OStatni akapit:

"Here, unfortunately, lies the real problem with the optimistic framing: it requires assuming that Trump, a man who assiduously nurses his personal and geopolitical grievances, will discover—at the very moment he feels most empowered—the best, most globally minded and most diplomatically savvy version of himself. All those in the United States and elsewhere with a stake in the survival of the liberal order should hope that Trump rises to this challenge. But they should probably brace for the prospect that Trump’s world could become a very dark place."

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/renegade-order-trump-hal-brands

Nic mądrego nie napiszę, jednak wyrażę swój żal.

T o, co się teraz stało to jak "zawiedziona miłość". Jakby ukochany facet okazał się narcyzem, kłamcą i niedojrzałym gnojkiem. I trzeba mierzyć się z rzeczywistością, że to była iluzja i tego wyidealizowanego faceta po prostu nie ma. Może go nigdy nie było? Tylko staliśmy w takim miejscu, że się nam nie obrywało.

Trudne to jest i bolesne.  Ale cóż, trzeba starać się jak najlepiej wybrnąć z tego klopsa.